You’ll find a full story with this intriguing title (minus the question mark) in the AMS Headlines Spotlight on Science section. It is worth a thorough read! A wonderful look at caves and what they can offer in the way of proxy data on Earth’s past climates, to be added to the insights we glean from ice cores, tree rings, and more. Within our community, paleoclimatologists are a particularly clever and inventive sort. This added example further burnishes their brand.
A confession: initially I misread the heading. With my Washington, DC, mindset I thought the article would focus on how efforts to cope with climate change appear to be flagging in the face of the task’s complexity, cost, and strong political headwinds. Caving-as-in-spelunking was the furthest thing from my mind.
No worries! Easy to add a question mark to the title and write what I thought I was going to read.
Begin with the very real reasons for concern.
Here in the United States:
Trump pulls out of global climate treaty. The message could hardly be more clear. In addition, the United States is stepping back from the policy emphasis of the past few years on renewables (as embodied, for example, in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act), by inserting funding freezes and other amendments in the One Big Beautiful Bill. (See also this piece on new political obstacles facing offshore wind farms.) The current administration’s enthusiasm for fossil fuels starts with oil and gas (The Energy Reset of 2025; U.S. Oil & Gas Industry Sees Sweeping Legal Shifts in 2025) and also extends to coal, as well (Reinvigorating America’s Beautiful Clean Coal Industry and Amending Executive Order 14241).
That’s a sample of the trend domestically. A few headlines from abroad show a similar drift:
China’s construction of new coal-power plants ‘reached 10-year high’ in 2024.
Europe’s swing to the right threatens global climate policy.
Finally, the 30th Conference of the Parties has produced at best a mixed picture: some of that is provided by previous posts on this blog. The global vibe is more somber than that seen in the aftermath of the Paris COP from 10 years earlier. And the Conference of the Parties itself appears to be losing relevance.
But reasons for hope are emerging.
For example, here at home, Senate lawmakers are proposing to restore many of the administration’s budget cuts proposed for science. The House passed similar measures. There’s a difference between “proposal” and “fact,” and of course many of the scientists who had been working on these budgets in prior years have been pushed out of their jobs. Additionally, the restorations are not evenly distributed across agencies or scientific disciplines. Nevertheless, these congressional actions are steps in a good direction and portend more.
What about abroad? China, though expanding the use of coal, has become the world’s leader in renewable energy. China is producing more than 70% of the world’s EV’s. China dominates solar panel manufacturing, holding over 80% of global capacity in key stages (polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules). China dominates installation of wind turbines. Although most of this has been for domestic investment, China is beginning to build international sales. And that’s before we get to the extraction and refinement of the rare earths needed for batteries and other renewable-energy kit. Considering the source, this dominance may not seem welcome in and of itself. But China’s initiatives are stimulating the competitive juices in Europe. The same applies to the private sector. Global tech corporations, including many based in the United States, are mounting their own clean-energy initiatives, irrespective of collapsing U.S. federal government support. AI’s seemingly insatiable demands for energy are an important driver. Generally speaking, powerful global market forces are working against U.S. policy preferences of the moment.
Meanwhile, the United Nations continues to pursue concerted global action with vigor. It’s only the annual mediagenic COP events per se that seem a bit wobbly. One notable recent UN advance? A new high-seas treaty, with 145 signatories and ratified by 81 and counting, came into force on January 17th: the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction agreement (BBNJ) covers all of the ocean outside countries’ exclusive economic zones. The United States is not a signatory. But neither is it a signatory to the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defines maritime zones (like territorial seas, Exclusive Economic Zones), navigational rights, and resource management (including seabed mining). Yet it has adhered to the terms of that convention for four decades.
Bottom line? In the face of climate change and other geochallenges, the world’s peoples and the United States in particular are advancing in some areas, stalled out in others, and temporarily in retreat here and there … but not caving in.
